Can You Smell It?

​The more I read, the more confused I get. I try to avoid being swayed by the pundits but it's very difficult. I mean, their sole purpose in life this time of year is to sway. Is Ohio State's offense really the second coming of Vince Young's 2005 Longhorns? Will West Virginia's schedule give them an opportunity at the championship? Do I care?

Attached is an article about the last 35 years of pre-season polls that I think you will all find enjoyable. Clearly the purpose of the poll is to attract ratings for television and make sure that the big boys stay close to the top as long as they're somewhat respectable. (The second week of the season pits number 1 Ohio State against number 2 Texas in a prime time matchup on ABC, and I promise, neither team will finish with that ranking at the end of the year, however it would take an absolutely catostrophic collapse for one of those two to finish unranked).

But have you ever wondered how accurate the pollsters are? Michigan has had their fair share of mis-rankings (see last year's pre-season #4) but much to my surprise we have been relatively UNDER-RATED. Here's an exerpt...

24. Michigan: Since 1971, no school has been ranked in the AP preseason poll more times than the Wolverines. They've been unranked just once, in 1985, a slight that prompted a defensively-dominant 10-1-1 season and a Fiesta Bowl victory over Nebraska. Last year's unexpected freefall to 7-5 represented just the second time in the last 35 years that Michigan began the year in the Top 25, yet couldn't maintain their ranking at the end of the bowl season.

*Composite Score: -4.21

Here's the opening blurb to give you a little background...

Since 1971, 31 college football programs have graced the AP's preseason Top 20...Top 25 beginning in 1989...at least 10 different years. Some have routinely lived up to their expectations, rewarding voters by either meeting or exceeding summer expectations with a solid season. Many others over the last 35 years, however, have not been as kind to the pollsters, often fading quickly and failing to meet their advanced billing.

And maybe my favorite paragraph of them all...

8. Notre Dame Rejoice, Irish haters. The 35-year evidence bears out your long-held belief that Notre Dame football gets way more credit in the polls than it deserves. The Irish have been ranked in 30 preseasons since 1971, but have been able to maintain or improve upon that projection a mere eight times. And on 11 occasions, they slid completely off the charts by the time the final bowl game had been played. The last three times Notre Dame was ranked in the preseason 1999, 2001 and 2003...it failed to manufacture more than five wins.

*Composite Score: -10.40

However you might get an even bigger kick out of who's been the most over-rated...Nice work by the guys at collegefootballnews.com. They saved me from doing a whole bunch of work that I wasn't sure I wanted to committ too...Here's the link...

The major factor that is not addressed however is when a team starts the season unranked but finishes in the rankings. I realize the point of the article is to focus our attention solely on the preseason rankings but in determining if a program is under or overrated, both elements should be considered. And obviously the previous years success or failure will ultimately have some bearing on the respect the individual program garners in the preseason. Certainly this holds true for the teams that aren't consistantly in the polls.

For instance, in 1999 the Michigan State Spartans went unranked in the preseason however finished the year number seven in the country. That would make them a plus 18 in a season they weren't ranked in the pre-season poll! The following preseason, Michigan State was ranked 25 in the AP's initial poll yet finished unranked at the end of the season. That type of jump of course is normally found when looking at the mid-level, power conference programs. And by using Michigan State as an example, we stay within the parameters that were established by the author: Choosing one of the 31 teams that appear at least 10 times since 1971.

Still a very nice piece of work and maybe Richard will join us at some point during the season to answer a couple of questions for The Hammer and talk more college football. Enjoy the article!

#13

With Breaston and Manningham streaking down the sidelines looking for deep balls and drawing double coverage, who will be moving the chains in the middle of the opponents defense? Ladies and Gents, meet Greg Mathews. He doesn't have the speed of Teddy Ginn Jr., but he is his cousin.  He doesn't have the athleticism of Memphis Tiger Darius Washington, but he went to the same high school as him. At about 6'3 the incoming Freshmen has great size and had some super gamebreaking performances at Orlando's Edgewater last season. Not the least impressive being a 200+ yard recieving game in the state playoffs that included over 100 yards in the final quarter to bring his squad back to victory. All this occurring after returning from an injury earlier in the game. As aforementioned, Matthews is not a burner, he is a plodder that hopefully will develop into a big time possesion receiver.

The best part of the G. Mathews story thus far is the fact that he actually arrived here in Ann Arbor. He was born in Honolulu, grew up in Los Angeles and finished high school in Florida. Of course his top two choices were FSU and Miami, leaning towards the later as he grew up a fan of the "U". When Michigan offered him a scholarship before the Florida schools he changed his tone but then said his best campus visit was to Ohio State. Compounding matters was the fact his mom went to school at OSU and his grandmother was an instructor in Columbus. However the Maize and Blue staff wrestled him away from the three perenniel powers and now he is ready to produce.

And produce he must if he expects to avoid being redshirtted this season. With Arrington and Tabb and Dutch and possibly Savoy slated to play a similar role, he may be caught in a logjam this upcoming fall. The injury to Bass may have moved him up a bit on the depth chart but big time catches will determine his PT. He seems to be a bit ahead of some of the aforementioned in the intelligence category and he practiced daily against two big time defensive back recruits on his high school team. Lets see if Henne can get him the ball before he realizes how much shittier the weather gets here as compared to L.A., Orlando and Honolulu. #13, Greg Mathews.

Case of the Mundys, Captains Edition: 8/22/2006

Message board posts become rumors become truth in this week's edition of Case of the Mundy's. Forums on The Wolverinewere buzzing last Monday with rumors of a pair of injured offensive lineman. The players in question were Justin Boren and Mike Kolodziej, but there was no confirmation. No official comment from Michigan of course, so The Freep decided to ask mom and dad...good plan. They were happy to spill the beans, sort of.

Rounding out the injuries...

• Antonio Bass (knee) : Out indefinitely


• Justin Boren (ankle) : weeks, months?


• Mike Kolodziej (undisclosed) : Out indefinitely

In "things Michigan will talk about" news, Coach Carr announced the captains for the upcoming season. Jake Long and Lamarr Woodley were selected by their teammates to lead the Maize and Blue onto the field for 2006...and hopefully just a little bit of 2007. For the superstitious folk, MGoBlue.com reminds us that the last time we had two captains that hailed from the great state of Michigan was in 1997.

I Want to Play Oklahoma

Not exactly hot off the press, but Ohio State and Oklahoma have inked a deal for a home-at-home for 2016-17. I must say, I am a bit jealous. The Buckeyes are finishing off a home-at-home with Texas at Austin in week 2, and they're already making plans for another...wait a second...does that say 2016-17? That's TEN YEARS FROM NOW. What the hell? The players that will play in that game are currently in fourth grade. That's planning ahead! Way to go AD Andy Geiger Tressel Puppet Gene Smith. Hey Gene, have I told you how much I love your pedigree? Nothing makes me happier than Notre Dame alum turned Buckeye. Big fan, Gene, big fan.

Anyway, I really am a bit jealous. Michigan's home schedule has all of the excitement of a Jesus Figueroa baseball card. You might find yourself going a little crazy, doing the math and rolling the seat license fee into the price of each ticket, bringing the pre-parking price of each game to just shy of a ticket to the Super Bowl. All of this for a glossy pass that you could get on the corner of Stadium and Main for $20 at 11:55pm. So goes the ebb and flow of the Michigan season ticket. Next year, you'll be happy you signed up to see a September to remember. And you never know, surprises lurk around every corner in the Big Ten. That mid-October battle with Iowa could be a matchup of top-10 teams. If those damn Hawkeyes can just find a way to beat the Big Sky's Montana Grizzlies and that pesky Big 12 menace, Iowa State. But just a note to Billy Martin...we've got 2 TBA's on that 2008 schedule...can you do something cool? It doesn't have to be a perennial power, just give me something different, ANYTHING different.

Rounding up the weekend that was across those pesky internets...

• The AP poll was unveiled, and all I've got is questions. How many of you pollsters just copied the USA Today poll because it came out first? Is this the one they do use for the BCS ranking, or the one they don't use? When do I get to see the Harris Poll? Are they still using those computers? Damn you BCS, you complicated bastard. One of my favorite picks that appears in both polls is West Virginia, the last piece of a dying Big East conference. Ranking a team because their schedule is weak and they have a good chance of going undefeated works well. Just ask Purdue, who cracked the preseason top 25 last year because they drew the famous "Michigan AND Ohio State skip." They went on to fall to Minnesota in their Big Ten opener, and went 0-5 in the month of October. It just goes to show you that it doesn't matter who you play. When you are Purdue suck, you suck. [AP Poll ESPN]


• Drew Sharp would like to remind you that outhouses are far superior to indoor plumbing, the home computer is just a passing fad, and Ohio State is better than Michigan. [Freep.com]


• Lamar Woodley as Captain Obvious: "If you finish your degree while you're here, you don't have to come back to get it." [Detroit News]


• Hey, did you know that Michigan is motivated by last year's disappointing season? Did you know that I am motivated by inspiring stories of doctors that work on Barbaro? [Detroit News]


• Matt Leinart and I have played in the same amount of NFL games. But, would you believe I've seen more NFL games than him? [The Hater Nation]


• Still having nightmares about Todd Howard? Get up to speed on the Michigan D-Backs with this one... [Blah Me To Death]


• We kicked the Spartan's ass. No, not those Spartans. I take that back, we kick those Spartan's asses too. [BigTen.com]


• In lay-up pun-maker news, the Wolverines inked their 11th commitment for 2007, and his name is Maze...get it? Maze... It's like Maize, but it's really not. [Ronald Bellamy's Underachieving All-Stars]

Hot Mom

This week we have a very special guest. Softball Diva Jennie Finch. A true trail blazer in the world of sports and pop culture, Jennie is as hot on the field as she is off it, once named by ESPN.com as the hottest female athlete (2003), Jennie continues to dominate the world of softball. Her career stats speak for themselves. She has appeared in numerous publications (SI,askmen.com, and Modern Bride amongst others) and tv shows including This Week in Baseball, The Late Show and The Jimmy Kimmel Show.

Jennie and I first met in San Diego on a shoot for This Week in Baseball with Tony Gwynn. We hit it off from day one and she was kind enough to take time out of her busy schedule to sit down with UMTailgate.com. Hope you guys enjoy and thanks so much to Jennie!

The Hammer: You recently had your first child with husband Casey Daigle (YAY!), how is life with a child?

Jennie Finch: It is such a blessing, each day is filled with surprises! We are enjoying
every second!

TH: As an elite athlete, what was it like being pregnant?

JF: It was really really fun! It is such a miracle and I feel so blessed to have had the opportunity to experience it and our lil guy Ace. I had it really easy... I enjoyed being pregnant! I was able to work out the entire pregnancy, I even walked 5 miles the day before I gave birth.

TH: At what point did you have to interrupt your daily routine?

JF: About 8 months I really started showing... after about 8 1/2 no travel, which was great! Not much change other than not being able to run, liftweights intensely, and etc.

TH: Did it take you a while to get back into softball shape?

JF: I was on the field after 3 weeks trying to get back, back to my old self about 2 1/2 months. It came back real quick, which was really exciting because you never know how your body is going to react. I had National Team Try outs at 6 weeks, so that was my goal as far as coming back.

TH: Tell us about USA Softball and what the future holds for the sport?

JF: USA Softball is at its peak right now, looking forward to the 2008 Olympics.  The World Cup was a real success this year, bringing it back to the US. We head out to China for the World Championships next week. Next summer the main events are the Pan Am Games in Brazil and the World Cup. Our sport is growing and really needs to continue to grow around the world in order to create opportunities for women in our sport. Seeing the National Pro Fastpitch League get its feet underneath itself has been really exciting for our sport especially with softball being taked out of the 2012 Olympic Games. 

TH: Are you excited about going to China (for the World Championships)?

JF: Yes, we are looking forward to World Championships. This is the 2nd biggest event for softball in between the Olympic Games. We are looking forward to qualifing for the Olympics next week. It will also be good to see Beijing in preparation for 2008.

TH: At what age did people start recognizing you ("Hey, look, that's Jennie
Finch!")

JF: I would say maybe after the 2001 Womens College World Series, the year we won it!

TH: Re-live the first couple years of your stardom...From working on TWIB, to appearing on late night talk shows, to finally gracing the cover of Sports
Illustrated and appearing in their Swimsuit issue. What are some of the
craziest highlights...besides hanging with me (wink)

JF: Where do I begin, I've been able to meet some incredible people and athletes! Some highlights were meeting Donald Trump at the Emmy's and David Letterman! TWIB (This Week in Baseball, one of the longest running sports series) was really the start of my career... truly a dream job, traveling all over to Major League Stadiums interviewing players.. some favorites were interviewing Barry Bonds and pitching at Dodger Stadium with Tommy Lasorda looking on! All Star Festivities were pretty fun too! Sports Illustrated was a dream come true! Its all just crazy, I am truly living a dream and feel so blessed!  Gatorade Commercial... another dream! 

TH: Where you ever apprehensive about all the attention you got? Did you ever
feel an obligation to the sport to do something that you might not have
normally done but thought it would help softball?

JF: It gets a little tough just trying to balance everything family, softball, media, and all while still trying to be the best on the field that I can be. Its a good issue to have, I keep busy! I've had to say no to a lot of things only because it might affect training. Its tough too in a team sport, you wish you could experience everything with your teammates!!!

TH: What does the future hold for you?

JF: Raising my son Ace with my husband. Getting ready for 2008... who knows
what will come in between!

TH: Michigan won the softball national championship in 2005, tell us about some
of the Wolverines you've met and what allowed our team to finally
breakthrough the pac-10's dominance...

JF: Of Course you had to bring up your Wolverines, just kidding! It was great for our sport, what a great program, Coach Hutch has built a great program at Michigan! Its exciting to watch them play! They had great pitching, great defense, and timely hitting. That's what it takes to Win it all! having Michigan win shows and proves the growth of our sport, the talent nation wide! Jennie Ritter is a tough competitor, Jessica Merchant is so talented! Great players and great people!

TH: Are you a college football fan?

JF: Only if my Wildcats are playing!